G2 Cloud Update

There is not much new being reported on the G2 cloud.  The NRAO radio telescopes are back in operation after the brief U.S. government shut down.

One interesting development is a paper that was recently published in the Astrophysical Journal by a group of German astronomers A. Ballone, et al.  This presents the results of  hydrodynamic computer simulations of the cloud's interaction with the Galactic core (Sagittarius A*).  Among other things this study concludes that the observations of the cloud are consistent with the cloud containing an embedded star and generating a mass outflow similar to that coming from a T Tauri star.  This scenario was earlier this year suggested by Scoville and Burkert, Burkert being one of the coauthors of this newer paper and by Murray-Clay and Loeb in 2012.  This scenario was also advocated by myself in an October 2012 superwave blog posting and in a May 2013 Sphinx Stargate news posting.

However, there is a significant difference between the T Tauri star scenario presented by Ballone, et al. and that which I have discussed.  Ballone, et al. are assuming that the rate of mass loss from the star will not be significantly affected by the Galactic center, whereas I have suggested that the star's proximity to the Galactic core is the primary cause for its mass loss due mainly to the suggestion that in addition to tidal stripping forces already being considered that the star surface is also being heated by: 1) the galactic core's cosmic ray wind which is able to penetrate through the surrounding G2 gas cloud deep into the star's surface, and 2) by the star's own internal generation of genic energy which increases in direct proportion to the deepening of the gravitational well that the star encounters in its close passage around the supermassive core (i.e, increase in the magnitude of the negative gravity potential ambient).  Neither of these two effects are being considered by astronomers currently studying the G2 cloud and for this reason they will be in for some surprises as the cloud approaches increasingly close to the core.

 If the G2 cloud embedded star were to be moved 100 times further from the Galactic core than where it is currently found, it would be found to have neither a surrounding cloud, nor would it appear as a T Tauri star.  It would appear as a normal main sequence star.  Its current appearance of a star outgassing and, as a result, surrounding itself with a dense gas cloud,  in my opinion, is directly attributable to its close proximity to the Galactic center.  I predict that as this star/cloud approaches increasingly closer to the Galactic core, its rate of mass loss will accordingly skyrocket, the star's internal luminosity in March 2014 being five fold higher than it was in May 2013.    Currently, Ballone, et al. estimate the star's mass loss rate at 9 X 10-8 solar masses per year.  By March 2014, this could  increase to 5 X 10-7 solar masses per year or about 2%  of an earth mass per year.

But the real concern is whether the G2 cloud contains a close binary star system or a star with a jupiter-sized planet.  In either case a close encounter could result in a stripping away of the partner star on a tractory that would cause it to crash directly into the Galactic core and trigger a major outburst and potentially damaging superwave.

As noted in an October 2013 Starburst Foundation news posting, recent analysis of tree ring records and ice core Be-10 and acidity profiles has confirmed the occurrence of eight of 13 minor superwave events that were predicted  to have impacted Earth in the past 5300 years.  I had originally predicted the dates of these events back in 1983.  Based on the terrestrial record I find that most of these were brief events lasting less than a year, with the exception of the event occurring 5300 years ago.  Interestingly, this earlier moderate superwave occurred just prior to the emergence of Nile Delta civilization and the commencement of the most recent Mayan calendar cycle.  Dates of the superwave events matched with terrestrial record events are given below along with their approximate duration:

superwave-durationsPaul LaViolette, November 2013

Any of these lesser events could have had consequences to society at least as severe as a Carrington solar flare event.

Moreover recently a paper by French astronomers Clavel, et al. published in the journal Astronomy and Astrophysics reports on x-ray observations made with the Chandra space telescope which indicate abrupt variations in the x-ray luminosity of Sgr A* occurring in the last few hundred years.  They describe two light echo events in the vicinity of Sgr A* of duration a few years or less that indicate a temporary increase of the Galactic core's x-ray output to 1039 ergs/second, or about 10,000 fold more intense than X-ray flares seen currently.

Thus the findings of this study confirm my prediction that the Galactic core has flared in recent centuries.  However, a flare of the magnitude that Clavel, et al. describe should have produced a sizable gas expulsion and based on ionized neon cloud observations no gas expulsions are known to have occurred more recently than 700 years ago.  Perhaps their findings more appropriately refer to the more recent core outburst that occurred around 1265 AD.

While astronomers have increasingly begun to accept my 1983 proposal that the Galactic core has been active in historical times, they still have not come to realize that cosmic rays from these outbursts will appear on our doorstep the moment that astronomers observe the "light show" occurring at the Galactic core.  They assume that cosmic rays move away from the core at subrelativistic speeds of the order of 10% - 20% c, as for example Bland-Hawthorn, et al. (2013) have assumed in their recent discussion of the illumination of the Magellanic Stream by galactic core cosmic rays (see phys.org story here).  Distances to the Magellanic Stream are quoted in the range of 30 to 60 kpc (100,000 to 200,000 light years), whereas the astronomers discussing its illumination by the Galactic core are assuming that the illuminating cosmic rays originated from an outburst that occurred about two million years ago.  If we instead adopt the view that this stream is being energized by superwave cosmic rays propagating rectilinearly from the Galactic core at relativistic speeds, we allow about 150,000 years for the Galactic core cosmic rays to reach the Magellanic Stream and another 150,000 years for their light to reach our solar system.  Thus we are led to conclude that this core outburst occurred about 300,000 years ago, about 6 times more recent than what Bland-Hawthorn, et al. estimate using their subrelativistic propagation model.

Consequently, while the majority of the astronomical community regards with interest what will soon take place with the G2 cloud's approach to the core, they appear to be oblivious to the dire threat that the result may pose to our planet should a future outburst move outward as a superwave.  This lack of awareness is a bit frightening, as much so as the consequences that could ensue.

Paul LaViolette,
November 7, 2013

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