Things still look quiescent at the Galactic center as of September 23rd. The only sign of activity was a brief spike that occurred two weeks ago.
Observational data from several months ago indicated that the G2 cloud had not yet reached periastron, and that the April 1st pericenter date estimate of Gillessen (2013) was some months too early. See the comment below by Charlie Knoll referring to the following Astronomers Telegram link: http://www.astronomerstelegram.org/?read=6285. At this point, there have been no new updates, so we don’t know exactly where the G2 cloud is in relation to its Galactic core pericenter. It is possible that something could occur in the coming months of this summer. This X-ray chart will be updated on an approximately weekly basis, unless there is an activity alert.
As stated before, the unanswered question is whether the G2 cloud contains a star with a planetary system and whether the Galactic core has tugged comets or planets away from the parent star and whether hydrodrag effects of the core’s ion and cosmic ray wind will be sufficient to cause such bodies to spiral into the core and trigger energetic activity. This possibility has been explored in the May 19th posting. If such material does make it into the core, the soonest I expect it would arrive is around mid August. But the chances that it will trigger a superwave with a prompt cosmic ray impact of the solar system are substantially reduced. I will put on hold my previous suggestion that the chance of a superwave should be reduced at least be a factor of 10 from what I had previously estimated in the white dwarf posting. So Padre Avondios’ prediction may still come to pass.
Based on what we know now, I don’t expect we will see any splitting of the G2 cloud because any planetary companion bodies would be too small to generate a separating cloud. The learning curve we have gone through in the past year as additional data has come out on the G2 cloud has given us quite a roller coaster ride, leading us once again to an uncertain immediate future. Keep in mind that we should always be prepared for the occurrence of any unexpected space weather event.