Things still look quiescent at the Galactic center as of October 5th. Just a slight up tick of activity today. Most likely the G2 cloud has passed its pericenter. But there have been no signs of enhanced activity other than the brief spike that occurred around September 10th. At this point we don’t know exactly where the G2 cloud is in relation to its Galactic core pericenter. This X-ray chart will be updated on an approximately weekly basis, unless there is an activity alert.
At this point the general consensus of astronomers is that the G2 cloud contains at least one star, or possibly two. As stated before, the unanswered question is whether if the G2 cloud contains a star with a planetary system and if the Galactic core is able to tug comets or planets away from the parent star, whether hydrodrag effects of the core’s ion and cosmic ray wind will be sufficient to cause such bodies to spiral into the core and trigger energetic activity. This possibility has been explored in the May 19th posting. Currently, the chance that we will experience a superwave with a prompt cosmic ray impact of the solar system are substantially reduced.
Based on what we know now, I don’t expect we will see any splitting of the G2 cloud because any planetary companion bodies would be too small to generate a separating cloud. The learning curve we have gone through in the past year as additional data has come out on the G2 cloud has given us quite a roller coaster ride, leading us once again to an uncertain immediate future. Keep in mind that we should always be prepared for the occurrence of any unexpected space weather event.