Flooding of Somerset Levels November 24, 2012 (Ben Birchall/PA Wire)
Image from a news story posted in Westmorningnews.co.uk
Image from a news story posted February 13, 2014 at Dailymail.co.uk.
I would like to share this email exchange between Valerie and climatologist Peter Taylor because it throws light on the severe weather and climatic changes that we are going through at present. These have very little to do with manmade CO2 increase as Peter explains. In my opinion, they also have little to do with the possibility of a superwave approaching our solar system, although significant climatic change could occur following a superwave impact.
P. LaViolette, February 13, 2014
On Tue, Feb 11, 2014 at 8:34 AM, Valerie wrote to Peter:
“Are these flooding part of an evil agenda as this article suggests, or climate changes that we are undergoing anyway and should rather be ready for? Maybe you have any comments and answers to share? With sympathy for our friends under the flood.
Kindest regards to all,
(See forwarded message at end of this posting which Valerie refers to.)
Response by climatologist Peter Taylor (February 11, 2014):
“Hi Valerie…..apologies for a long absence (in Czech forests!).
Regarding the floods:
* Firstly, yes, the climate is changing – just as it always does in cycles. The recent ‘extreme’ weather is no different than previous cycles in terms of the weather dynamic, but some of these cycles are very long and beyond lifetime experience – for example, there was an infamous train derailment on the levels in the late 1940′s in August caused by ice on the track! The longest cycles are 1000 years – when White Stork nested in Britain as far north as Edinburgh, and go back 8000 years to the lake village on the levels, and they ate pelican for breakfast!
* Fifty to sixty years ago the levels were famous throughout Britain for their winter floods, and the summer abundance of water birds – holding the few breeding Black Tailed Godwit in the UK; along with Yellow Wagtail, Whinchat, breeding ducks, Snipe and Redshank; go back to Victorian times and the place was a Mecca for wildfowlers. Today!!! A few small reserves where the water level is kept artificially high – gone are the godwits, curlew and vast numbers of waterbirds – the levels dried out and shrunk even lower and more powerful pumping stations move the water out at low tide – much of the land is below sea-level; add to that the location of housing, caravan parks and industrial buildings, the increased canalisation of the river flow and the more intensive grazing of the upland watersheds, and you have a recipe for ‘catastrophic’ flooding.
* The Environment Agency realised 20 years ago how much had been lost as well as the high cost of maintenance and decided not to dredge the rivers – which are very damaging to wildlife, leaving many riverbeds higher than the ditches which the farmers continually drain and which the pumps drive to the sea!
* Then the ‘rains’ come back! these are driven not by ‘global warming’ (note there has been NO increase in surface temperature of the globe in the last 15 years) or carbon dioxide, but by the returning cycle (see next point) – IF global warming has continued due to CO2, as argued by the defenders of the ‘models’ then (they say) it has been transferred to the deep ocean….I doubt that, but in any case, that warmth is insulated from the surface and hence cannot affect weather patterns;
* The rains are caused by a recent shift in the high altitude jetstream (there are loads of scientific papers on this) which drives storm tracks in from the Atlantic. The eye of these storms is usually tracking north of the Orkney Island and into Norway on a massive ‘loop’, but the loop has flattened and the storms now come directly into SW Britain and northern Spain, at times, even into southern Spain – they carry massive ‘atmospheric rivers’ of moisture from a generally warmer Atlantic (warmed a great deal between 1980-2005 – but now beginning to cool);
* Observant naturalists will note that concurrent with the wetter summers, which began by flooding out the Sunrise Festival on the levels in 2007 or 2008, there have been colder winters – both these patterns are the OPPOSITE of that predcited by the computer models of the MetOffice (and I predicted both accurately and the cause in 2009 in letters to their Hadley Centre and in my book ‘Chill‘ published in that year);
* The shift in the jetstream is also in the opposite direction to that predicted by the models – i.e. southward instead of northward, as expected in a warming world – the models also predict LESS extreme weather due to a smaller different between polar air and air to the south of the polar region;
* There is a strong correlation between shifts in the jetstream and solar magnetic activity – when the magnetic field is LOW, the jetstream shifts southward and becomes more ‘loopy’, allowing very cold Arctic air to flow southward – as happened all last month with record cold and snowfall in the central and eastern USA and Canada (called a polar vortex) – this can also happen in western Europe as late as March, so watch out!
* The Earth’s magnetic field is strongly connected to the Sun’s field, and it falls to about 10 units (nanoteslas) every 11 years, and rises to 30-35, but since 1995, the peaks have begun to decline and the troughs get longer – the current cycle should have an annual average of 30, but still languishes around 10, and in 2008-2009 dropped to below 5 – unique in the 100 year record – thus, the Sun is changing radically and NASA have been watching this carefully, as its behaviour has confounded all of their models (as I correctly forecast in 2008);
* Thus there is a lot of scientific discussion (and revision of models) going on and some expectation that we may be entering a ‘Maunder Minimum’ of magnetic activity the like of which was last seen in Elisabethan times when the Thames froze every winter and many summers were cold and damp, crops failed and there was widespread famine, disease and misery in Europe and China (where records were kept);
* I am currently talking with the ONLY scientific team who have a good comprehension of the dynamics – and they are based in Prague; the most likely mechanism relates to the low level of UV radiation that is a consequence of reduced solar activity – the visible wavelengths remain much the same with fractional percentage shifts (and the models only used these visible wavelengths). There is ONE revised NASA/NOAA model that now incorporates the UV shift – AND, it predicts no further warming until 2065, and cooling in between. I talked to that team early in 2010, and maybe I had some influence – who knows because they never acknowledged the meeting where I drew their attention to the other work they had missed);
* Recent science is beginning to unravel the likely mechanisms of the past cycles – firstly the Sun is not constant in its output as thought by NASA until 1979; secondly the magnetic flux increased by 230% from 1900 to 1995, and has been falling since – temperatures peaked shortly after in 1998-2005 depending on who is measuring; the UV flux has been measured only since 1979, and is now at an all-time low, after peaking in 2003;
* Concurrent with the warming from 1980-1998 (by the way, the globe cooled from 1945-1980), low-level reflective cloud cover DECREASED by 4% – thus allowing the more visible radiation wavelengths to warm the oceans. THIS is the proximal cause of ‘global warming’ as I outline in Chill – caused by a measured increase (by NASA) of 4 watts/square metre at the surface, compared to the increased CO2 effect, computed at 1 watt). That is why I say that global warming is 75-80% natural (and prof John Christy of the IPCC working group agrees, but his colleagues at the UN do not!); the ‘warmists’ argue that the cloud changes are feedback from CO2. But that is not in the models, nor is there a convincing mechanism – and if this were true, one need only look at what clouds have done since 1998 as CO2 has increased steadily since then – and cloud cover recovered by 2% in a shift during 2001;
* There is a ‘clutching at straws’ argument by the modellers that the loss of Arctic Sea ice in September influences the jetstream in January….but Arctic specialists and the geophysicists here say this is purely correlation not cause – no mechanism exists for that, and in any case, during the Maunder Minimum there was massive ice-cover – the Vikings left their farms in Greenland as a consequence, and the jetstream hit Europe as it is doing today.
So – that is the story! The Somerset Levels need ‘adaptation’ for sure, but more ‘defences’ will be expensive, politically expedient, but at great risk of making the next ‘breach’ even worse – best is to manage the levels for wetland wildlife and farming methods that can co-exist – but that is NOT politically expedient! Unless, that is, large sums of money were spent in restructuring (rewilding) and compensation – this is a major undertaking because of the intensive hydraulic manipulation – even the nature conservation areas are tied in to the pumping regimes and they would oppose having higher water levels because they would gain lots of common or garden ducks and lose the exotic reedbed herons!
with best regards
———- Forwarded message which Valerie referred to ———-
From: charles Date: Saturday, February 8, 2014
Hi, I thought it extremely important to forward this email to you.
Last night just before leaving to attend a lecture in Glastonbury, I saw Landlord Jim of The King Alfred in Burrowbridge on ITN TV news, clad in a STOP THE FLOODS T shirt, talking wisely and standing up for the stricken people of Burrowbridge and the area in general. He was also cleverly scathing of the visits of Lord Chris Smith and especially David Cameron, who arrived on the scene weeks late! I think there is something strange about these men; they seem to be removed from the utter devastation, strangely programmed into a mind set and seem to find it hard to say sorry or show any meaningful compassion. In short, these men appear to carry a huge burden of guilt that is evident in their body language. Last night I left my house feeling that just maybe, there is another agenda, far graver than we can even imagine.
Shortly after, I arrived at Glastonbury Town Hall to attend an open public meeting of the inaugural TRUTH JUICE GLASTONBURY GROUP. The speaker was David Limm and the subject, Aircraft Pollution and Chem Trails. During his excellent presentation he covered many things, particularly Agenda 21(being gradually implemented by the EU) and one of the tools being used to further that agenda…WEATHER MANIPULATION. The large crowd in attendance were horrified by the implications and it was not long before THE GREAT SOMERSET FLOODS became central to the discussion. Everyone felt that the information being presented MUST come out as soon as possible and felt that contacts, groups, farmers etc in the Langport and Burrowbridge areas, as well as other locations in Somerset and the South West, can bring all this new information out in the open…”